Some Bold Predictions

I made some bold predictions, made some arrogant comments, overestimated Tennessee, Florida, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin, and slightly underestimated Auburn, Michigan State, Ohio State, and USC.  So far I’ve called the conference races with the exception of the Big 10, and with a few weeks left of college football, I’ll re-visit my early predictions.

I said LSU would beat Bama in Tuscaloosa and Bama would handle Arkansas, I got those, I also said Florida would beat Bama….OOPS.

I said, Wisconsin would beat Nebraska, got another one, I also said Wisconsin would go into the Big 10 Championship undefeated…OOPS.  

I said Oklahoma would go undefeated into Bedlam, said A&M would have a special season but still have losses at OU and against Arkansas (I didn’t expect the rest of the Big XII to beat up on them too).  I paid no attention to Oklahoma State, except picking them to beat OU in the Bedlam game, which is still one that will be determined later.  

I didn’t think USC had a chance to beat Stanford, but they took them to OT, it’ll be interesting to see what Stanford does this week against a speedy Oregon team that just got L. James back.  

I said South Carolina would win their division with two losses, Arkansas, got that one, but I thought Florida would be their other.  Florida could still get it done this week, but the Gators look lost and frustrated right now, not a team that’s going to beat the ‘Cocks.  

I never thought Auburn would be having this type of season, I thought Miss State would be that 4^th team in the West after LSU, Bama, and Arkansas, but they look the Miss State of old, just pathetic…..OOPS. 

I thought the offenses in the SEC East would be much better this year, with Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray, John Brantley, and Stephen Garcia it was a solid collection of quarterbacks with a lot of speed all over the field….OOPS.

We’ve got roughly 4 weeks of football left counting Conference Championship games, the games I consider can’t miss are:

#1.  Oklahoma at Oklahoma State:

This game probably has the biggest Nat Champ implications.  We know if Okie St wins out they’re in, we’ve also had to accept the computers rank the Big XII the toughest conference, so if OU wins out, they’ve got as good a shot as any to represent the Big XII in the Nat Champ.

#2.  Oregon at Stanford

Last year Stanford just couldn’t match the speed of Oregon, I feel as though this year will be very similar.  If Stanford wins, they need LSU or Okie St to lose to make it to NOLA, so this game is behind Bedlam for that reason.

#3.  Arkansas at LSU

No game has given us the fireworks that this one has over the past decade.  Overtimes, last second field goals, and BCS implications seem to follow this game around like a little puppy.  Until last year, the game had been decided by 5 pts or less the last 5 years.  It seems as though the underdog has a decisive advantage in this game every year.  Arkansas has only gone into Baton Rouge once and gotten a victory in the last 13 seasons, however, that one time was when LSU was ranked #1 and a National Championship birth was all but decided.  LSU still won the National Championship in 2007, they just did it with one L on the resume.  That scenario could play out again this year the day after Thanksgiving.

#4.  Pac-12 Championship Game

It looks as though the winner of the Oregon v Stanford game will get Arizona State in the Championship.   This could be really good matchup for Arizona State who throws the ball well and can score in bunches.  They lack a little on defense, but they do have some playmakers.  This will be a great test for the eventual Pac-10 representative.  What would be intriguing to know is if Oregon beats Stanford, and goes to the Pac-12 Championship and loses to Arizona State.  Where is Stanford ranked among teams with 1-loss.

#5.  Alabama at Auburn

One might think this game has 0 bearing on the eventual National Champion, and maybe it doesn’t.  What will be interesting is if Auburn wins here, LSU loses to Arkansas, and Arkansas goes to the SEC Championship and beats Georgia or South Carolina.  Will LSU still be ranked ahead of the Hogs in the BCS poll and get the nod to play for the National Title?  If Alabama wins here, and Arkansas beats LSU, the tie breaker scenario in the SEC is “ALL JACKED UP,” and Bama gets to play in the SEC Championship game.   If LSU, and Stanford or Okie St stay unblemished this game has very little meaning, but what are the chances of that happening?

#6.  Penn State vs The rest of their schedule

Penn St has had the luxury of a manageable schedule since their loss to Bama.  What happens if the Nittany Lions turn it on and finish the season with only 1 loss.  They finish with Nebraska at home, then at Ohio St and at Wisconsin, then probably Michigan State in the Big 10 Championship.  That’s a SOLID resume going into what could possibly be a really messed up BCS rankings th 5^th Sunday from today.

#7.  Notre Dame at Stanford

Who would have thought so many important games would be played on the Farm this year?  If Stanford beats Oregon, this will be another tough test for the Cardinal before they get the National Championship nod.

#8.  The SEC Championship game

Why is this game so low???  Mainly because regardless of who it is LSU, Bama, or even Arkansas the East doesn’t seem to be matching up very well with the West this year.  Georgia is pretty good, they were so young to start the year and Richt has them playing at a fairly high level compared to how they started, they could cause some problems, but we haven’t seen them against an LSU, Bama, or even an Arkansas.  If Arkansas somehow beats LSU and causes chaos, then somehow wins the SEC West tiebreaker, I doubt they’ll be in line for the National Championship even if they win in Atlanta.  So I see this game having very little influence on who plays for and wins the National Championship.  If it’s LSU in this game, it’s just another test for LSU and I’m confident the Tigers will be able to get up for it.  Even with a loss, is LSU’s resume’ greater than any other 1-loss team…..YES!!!

#9.  Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

If you’re looking for a bad matchup for that Cowboys that happened to be a  very pitiful team, look no further than Lubbock, TX.  The way Tech can score should keep them in the game and then it’s just a matter of who can get a stop or a turnover in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter.  Kansas State had no business being in that game with the way Okie St was scoring, that’s not K-States game, but that is Tech’s game, so it might get interesting in Lubbock.

#10.  TCU at Boise State

Maybe Boise’s best chance to get upset, but it’s a slight chance.  I don’t think it matters either way and I believe it shouldn’t.  Until Boise steps up to the plate and schedules more than one average team from a BCS conference I can’t say they deserve to even make a BCS bowl.  That’s one spot they’re taking away from a team that actually went out and handled some adversity.  Bottom Line: if Boise loses that gives Houston a solid chance at a BCS bowl, so it doesn’t matter either way.

Here we go….prediction time.

#1.  I’m changing my mind, I’ve got Oklahoma beating Okie St 52-38

#2.  Oregon is again too fast for Stanford.  Ducks win 48-41

#3.  I said Ark early, I’ll stick with it, Hogs in 3OT 42-38

#4.  We’ve seen ASU v Oregon, I’ll take the Ducks 35-21

#5.  It would be great story, but Bama is too much.  Tide Rolls 42-10

#6.  Penn St drops three in a row right here, 0-3, no Big 10 Championship game.

#7.  Notre Dame can’t score with Luck, Cardinal win 28-17

#8.  Who’s going to be there???  Whoever it is....West wins 38-20

#9.  Whew….another close one for the Cowpokes, OSU wins 55-52

#10.  Who cares, but I’ll take Boise 38-28

THE HEISMAN

I made the bold prediction the Heisman trophy would go to Russell Wilson.  Great player on a good team, but not good enough to get to New York.  I said the finalists would be:  Russell Wilson, Landry Jones, Andrew Luck, Marcus Lattimore, and LaMichael James…….WHEW!!!  OOPS!!!  Luck will probably be the only one of my picks in New York.  Lattimore went down with injury, but Richardson has a firm grip on the best RB in college football.  Landry Jones still has a chance to get to New York, but with Broyles down we’ll find out a lot about the Sooners offense in the next few games.  James is back and that’s bad news for Stanford, but a long shot to make it to New York.

SEC Saturday Recap

THE BATTLE OF THE HOTTEST HOTSEAT

Georgia and Mark Richt win 27 -13
I guessed 38 - 17 Dawgs.  I'm 1-0

What we learned:
You don't really want to play Georgia this year, they're not top tier of the SEC, but my goodness there's talent all over the offensive side of the football.  Isaiah Crowell is great, he had an incredible first half, and Malcolm Mitchell can make a defensive back look silly in a hurry.  It's going to be tough to beat Georgia over the next few years, I'd be really surprised if the Dawgs don't make a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship in Aaron Murray's college career.  Ole Miss is much better on Defense than I thought, but in typical Houston Nutt fashion, an onside kick, a few trick plays and it was almost a game.  This is Nutt's last year in Oxford, so we better start thinking about who's going to be the next guy at Ole Miss.  See Tuesday's Post!

THE BATTLE FOR SCHOLASTIC DOMINANCE

The Ole Ball Coach got it done at home, but it was ugly.  South Carolina 21 - Vanderbilt 3,
I guessed South Carolina 34 - Vanderbilt 10, I'm 2-0

What we learned:
South Carolina is in some trouble, or maybe Vanderbilt is really going to cause some trouble for opposing offenses.  Stephen Garcia threw four interceptions, FOUR, in this game, and only one touchdown.  Luckily for the Gamecocks Marcus Lattimore is incredible, Vandy did a good job limiting running yards, but Lattimore had three catches for 73 yards and a touchdown.  Lattimore makes the move up the Heisman board with his 150 yard, 2 touchdown performance.  The Gamecocks cannot continue to play like this and expect to be a contender in the East with Florida playing so well.  We'll find out a lot about South Carolina when they go to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs on Nov 5th, then right back to take on Florida at home the next week.  Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee shouldn't be problems, but if Spurrier doesn't get the Gamecocks in shape soon, they'll be looking up at Florida in the standings.

IF ONLY THIS WERE PLAYED ON HARDWOOD

Florida went to Lexington and took care of business, Florida 48 - Kentucky 10
I guessed Florida 38 - Kentucky 10, I'm 3-0

What we learned:
Jeff Demps is really fast, and the Florida I watched the last two saturdays is going to really give Alabama problems when the Tide travel down to Gainesville next week.  I still want to see Florida up against the upper tier of the SEC before I proclaim to be sold on the job Muschamp is doing, but it appears as though Florida is headed in the right direction, especially on defense.  Kentucky should shoot for 1 SEC win and I'm not sure they're gonna get that.

SPEED VS SPEED/POWER

Morgantown was crazy, but LSU is too good, LSU won 47 - 21
I guessed LSU 31 - WVU - 20, I'm 4-0

What we learned:
LSU's defense can really fly to the ball and they're the most athletic defense in college football, maybe the best defense in college football, maybe.  Jarrett Lee looked really good, especially on the first drive, throwing the football.  He's still not my #1 pick of the SEC Quarterbacks, but he really handled the environment well and managed the game as more of a playmaker than usual.  I did see a rare missed field goal by LSU, but the kickoff return by Claiborne and shear physicality of the LSU special teams was so obvious during the game.  What you notice as the difference between LSU and Bama is not the personell, both are so talented and so athletic on defense, but it's how they play.  Saban is a discipline guy, each defender gets a job, do your job, trust your teammate to do their job and don't let the other team gain one single yard!!!  Whereas, Les Miles, runs guys on and off the field, let's the guys just do whatever they want, it's organized chaos and it works!!!  The reason LSU forces so many turnovers and makes teams look silly is because Les Miles allows the defensive playmakers to break all the rules, they go out there with a recommendation, not a job, but a hint of what to do when we run this defense.  It's like there are six rovers on the field at all times and the other five games are playing assignment defense, its just incredible.  I've never seen players take so many risks, but it pays off in huge fashion, because quarterbacks know what defensive backs are told, for instance, "if you don't have safety help you try to make a play on the ball, but only if you know for certain you won't miss, you won't get in trouble for allowing the completion and tackling on the spot."  Not this LSU team, the corners rarely have safety help, the safeties are in the backfield, so the opposing quarterback knows he's got a throw where if he is somewhat accurate the corner will allow the completion and make the tackle after the catch.  Most QB's make that throw with confidence because they've done it SO many times, except when you throw it against LSU it's either a pick or a touchdown, the corner is break underneath the route and try to cut the ball off everytime.  So either make a perfect throw or throw it out where the receiver can go get it, NOPE, bad call, a perfect throw is your only option, if you throw it out in front of the receiver with a little air the LSU defender is faster, stronger, more physical, and plays the ball better in the air than your receiver, it's a pick even more times.  The windows against Bama are small and close quickly, but the windows against LSU are wide and seem easy, that's until a really fast guy in Purple and Gold is running the other direction with the football.
I really want West Virginia in the SEC, they're not playing SEC caliber football just yet, but they're very good and that environment in Morgantown is what you would expect of SEC schools.  The fans are passionate, they love their football, the state has only one major college football program (apologies to Marshall), it's not a big state or a wealthy state, it's just a state like Alabama or Louisiana, if tragedy strikes the community takes care of each other.  The whole experience on Saturday night watching that game in Morgantown was fantastic, and bravo to LSU for being able to go in there and take care of business.  If the SEC could get out of their own way and realize the gem of a program West Virginia is, they'd see that it makes perfect sense to bring them into the East and allow the power the conference brings to increase their athletic budget to SEC levels and make the necessary improvements to compete in the SEC.

THE BATTLE TO SEE WHO'S GOT LESS PERSONALITY

Saban and Bama got it done against the Hogs in a big way, Bama 38 - Ark 14
I guessed Bama 27 - Ark 17, I'm 5-0 in my first week of picking games.

It looked like the Hogs were going to give the Tide trouble early, but it didn't last long.  It was 10 - 7 with just five minutes left in the first half, Arkansas had just held Alabama at the goalline and forced a field goal.  Wilson was throwing on second down to a Greg Childs who hasn't been able to get the reps needed with Wilson to be confident going into Tuscaloosa.  A misunderstood route or a timing error and Bama picks off Wilson and returns it for six.  A halftime score of 17 - 7 isn't a bad thing for the Hogs, but it was a crushing blow to the momentum they had gained with the goalline stand.  In the first half, Petrino and Wilson were picking up yards with ease and it looked like Alabama was going to need to score points to keep up with the Razorback offense.  As Saban does, he adjusted at halftime and the Hogs didn't get to see the ball much after that.
Alabama came out after halftime and took all those easy throws away.  They absolutely stuffed the run, controlled time of possession, limited Arkansas' big play receivers to small gains, and got all the momentum with a punt return for a TD after the first possession of the second half.  It was all Tide after that, but there were some very good things for Hog fans to take away from the game.

#1 - Tyler Wilson is going to be a GREAT quarterback, he's not quite there yet, but if you remember Mallett's first SEC road game (yes, the one, at Bama), Arkansas only put 7 points on the board and Mallett had a terrible time finding open receivers.  Wilson outplayed Mallett in his first SEC road start, he did exactly what you thought he would, he was 22 of 35 for 185 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.  The problem with the yards wasn't Wilson, it was Alabama's secondary, normally Arkansas excels in a category called YAC's, Yards After Catches, well other than one long Ronnie Wingo YAC the Hogs were tackled almost immediately after catches and any screen play had trouble getting out of the backfield.  You have to give the gameball to Alabama's secondary for holding the talented Arkansas receivers to short gains when they did make catches.

#2 - The difference in the game was how much better Alabama was up front on both sides of the ball.  Arkansas was playing shorthanded without their best Defensive lineman Jake Bequette, but when Tank Wright went down early it was going to be tough sledding.  The one thing you can't gameplan for is injuries, and between Knile Davis, Greg Childs, Jake Bequette, Tank Wright, Jarius Wright, Dennis Johnson, and Isaac Madison all struggling through injuries in the first four games of the year it has proved difficult for Petrino to find consistency with his units.  The defensive line for the Hogs looked lost at times and rightfully so, the two best players on the d-line were sitting on the Razorback sideline watching.  You don't expect players like D.D. Jones and Robert Thomas to be the one's applying the bulk of the pressure from their defensive tackle positions, so it wasn't a surprise when the Hogs couldn't get to McCarron and cause turnovers without their best pass rushers.  The Hogs will be better in the future as Petrino continues to place an emphasis on recruiting to the defensive line.
  The Hogs looked very poor on the Offensive line as Wilson took a severe amount of punishment throughout the game.  At one point it looked like Wilson had gotten run over by the lawn mower, his jersey was frayed all over and it had a green stains all over the back and shoulders.  This offensive line is going to be very good, but it's going to take a few more weeks to gel like Petrino wants them to.  Alabama's defensive front seven is the real deal, I'd be surprised if a single one of them don't play on Sundays.  Bama's defense is good up front, really good in the secondary, and going to be very hard to score against this year.

#3 - Arkansas has a tough game against Texas A&M and then they come home to take on Auburn before a bye week.  If the Hogs can get a W in Dallas and then come back and take care of their home turf against Auburn it could still be a special season in Fayetteville.  Don't forget, the Hogs lost to Alabama and Auburn early last year and still made it to a BCS bowl.  Next week against A&M is a big one for these Razorbacks!

The SEC is still wide open, but it's going to be very tough to take down Alabama and LSU this year, they're looking extremely tough.  I made a pick last week and I'll stick to it until I'm definitely wrong.  I still feel as though LSU and Arkansas will go into their annual Battle for the Golden Boot with one SEC loss each.  The winner will take the SEC West and play South Carolina from the East.  Right now it's looking a lot like Alabama, Florida, and LSU are the teams to beat, but last week was only one week and College Football has proven to bring some surprises.

SEC Matchups Week 4

THE BATTLE OF THE HOTTEST HOT SEAT

This week Mark Richt will take his very warm seat into Oxford where Houston Nutt's seat would make the devil sweat.  The difference in these two coaches is the caliber of young talent Mark Richt is putting on the field.  Aaron Murray as a sophomore is really fun to watch and has moments where you're scratching your head thinking, "how does a defense ever get this kid off the field."  Then Murray hands it off to a freshman named Isaiah Crowell and he goes for about 5.6 yds a carry and gives you the feeling he'll be disappointing defensive coordinators in the SEC for at least a few years.  Then the play action comes, and Murray uses that athleticism to get outside the pocket and throws to another freshman, Malcolm Mitchell, yeah, he's leading the Dogs in catches and yards.  Not far behind Mitchell is Michael Bennett the freshman tight end, he looks more like a receiver, but if we're grading on athleticism for a TE, I give him an A.  The Bulldogs will be alright, don't give up on Richt just yet, if you fire him to get a big name guy like, well, Butch Davis, Jim Tressell, or a host of other coaches who have recently been released from employment for  stretching the rules, you too might be skipping football after Thanksgiving for awhile.  Richt is a great coach and Georgia will be alright, the schedule is tough this year, but the Bulldogs will be playing in a bowl game.

Houston Nutt's future is completely different, if Ole Miss had any sense at all they'd pony up that buyout money and send Houston Dale on his way.  When Arkansas fell out of love with Nutt the media got onto to the Hogs for thinking they could do any better than the occasional Cotton Bowl.  Turns out the media was wrong again, Petrino has the Hogs rolling, and Ole Miss should see this as an example why there's a better guy out there.  As a big fan of SEC West football I know a few things to be true.  #1 - Alabama is Alabama, is Alabama, is Alabama, they're good and even when they're bad, they're still good.  #2 - Auburn's wins are directly related to how well Gus Malzahn's offense executes, and their losses are because Gene Chizik's defense can't stop anyone, it's like they're only playing with 8 defenders out there, EVERYONE is open.  #3 - If Ole Miss allows Miss St to be the best team in Mississippi on a year in and year out basis, they're not as committed to football as they proclaim to be.  Miss St is suppose to be the Vanderbilt of the West (minus the smart people), why are they good Ole Miss?  Know your role and take care of your state and get a head football coach that believes that to be true.

Georgia 38 - Ole Miss 17

THE BATTLE FOR SCHOLASTIC DOMINANCE

Hahahaha!!!  It doesn't matter who Vanderbilt plays in the SEC, they've already won that battle, but this year there may be some pretty intense battles on the field involving the Commodores.

Vandy looked pretty good last week, especially on Defense and they'll travel to South Carolina this weekend to test that D against a very capable Gamecock offense.  The key man in Columbia is obviously Marcus Lattimore, who's on my short list for Heisman consideration, but the best player on the whole team might be Alshon Jeffery.  I'd be shocked if Jeffery is not the first WR off the board in this years NFL draft, and don't think I've forgotten about Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State, I'd take Jeffery if I'm the GM.  While Vandy's defense is much improved and plays with great discipline, South Carolina's offense is just too much this week.

South Carolina 34 - Vanderbilt 10, Marcus Lattimore goes for over 150, again.

IF ONLY THIS WERE PLAYED ON HARDWOOD

I want to send a sincere Thank You to the Kentucky Wildcats for bringing national recognition to the SEC's very poor basketball in the last several years.  Also, I have the same sincere appreciation for Kentucky's football program, but for a completely different reason, they continue trying hard although they're absolutely outmatched in this league in all aspects of the sport.  It's okay Wildcat fans, every basketball program in the country looks up to you in terms of wins, and each year Calipari gets to coach before they get him for recruiting infractions is another year that your lead in total wins increases.  Know what you're good at, and it's not football this year.  Florida on the other hand is very good this year and their defense looks similar to the unit that smothered Ohio State in the National Championship game just a few years ago.

Florida 38 - Kentucky 10

SPEED VERSUS SPEED/POWER

LSU is traveling to Morgantown this week, and Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineer offense looks like they can really score in bunches.  Oh wait, that's right, LSU already played the best version of the spread in the country except their defense looked even faster than the Ducks.  West Virginia will throw in some wrinkles, but LSU's defense is full of future NFL stars.  Even though West Virginia likes to the use the spread and their athletic QB, Geno Smith, to throw the ball more than Oregon did, but throw it you may, succeed, probably not.  LSU's Tyrann Mathieu is an elite corner/safety/linebacker/rover/I have no idea what position the mad hatter has him playing, elite athlete, and elite defender.  LSU's defensive front is really tough and you don't recognize the names yet because they rotate several guys out there and each of them is as good as the other, and they're all real good.  Look for the Mountaineers to speed up the tempo and try to keep the Tigers from rotating the defensive front.  To counter, look for LSU's defenders to spend a lot of time on the ground "hurt" so they can make sure they're getting coached up between plays  and able to rotate their stud athletes in and out of the game.

LSU 31 - West Virginia 20

THE BATTLE TO SEE WHO'S GOT LESS PERSONALITY, PETRINO OR SABAN

The old saying "offense wins games but defense wins championships" will be tested on Saturday.  I had no idea which way to go, so I'll break it down and decide after some research.  The Razorbacks travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend and you better believe both coaches have been talking about this one since spring practices.  The Hogs got on the Tide early last year in Fayetteville and the lack of a running game gave Bama a chance to come back and get the W.  Since then, Arkansas discovered a run game with Knile Davis, Alabama lost three games on there way to what we know was a disappointing season last year for Bama fans, Arkansas played in the Sugar Bowl, Alabama dismantled Michigan State in the Capital One bowl, Arkansas sent their rocket armed QB to the NFL, Alabama sent their Heisman winning RB to the NFL along with their best receiver and defender from last year, Arkansas replaced their two tackles and doesn't appear to be cohesive on the offensive line as of yet, Alabama's defense looks even nastier than last years, Arkansas lost Knile Davis and apparently their run game in the first live scrimmage of the year, Alabama has replaced their NFL stud RB with a guy that might even be better, Arkansas still doesn't have a corner that can cover my 16 year old brother one on one, Alabama's corners are fast and physical and play the ball extremely well in the air, Arkansas passing game has become abbreviated with Tyler Wilson and the vertical threats that opened up a lot of field are sidelined with injuries, Alabama looks more aggressive in the passing game and McCarron looks capable of making big plays with his arm.

After that you might think the Tide will have no problem handling the Hogs on Saturday, but when you break down the particulars I'm not so sure it'll be that easy.

Unit by Unit

Arkansas' Offensive Line vs Alabama's Defensive Front, big advantage Tide

The Hogs are more athletic up front than in years past, they're just really young and inexperienced.  The holes have looked small and close fast for Wingo in the warm up games Arkansas has played so far, it'll be even tougher to find room against this Tide front seven.  Upshaw and Hightower have been talking about how quickly they're going to embarrass the Hogs Freshman LT/weakside tackle (Petrino flips his O Line), Mitch Smothers, in his SEC debut.  Upshaw and Hightower are elite LB's in the SEC, Smothers better bring his best stuff.

Arkansas' Receivers vs Alabama's Defensive Secondary, slight advantage to the Hogs

You might be shaking your head at this one, but let me explain.  Yes, we know about how good Alabama's corners are playing the ball in the air and how hard the safeties hit.  Problem is, Arkansas runs four Biletnikoff watchlist receivers onto the field.  For those that don't see the point, it's not a matter of whether or not Bama's Dre Kirkpatrick or DeQuan Menzie can cover Arkansas' Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, or Greg Childs, it's a matter of which guy is covered by the least capable defender.  It doesn't matter to Petrino or Tyler Wilson who he throws it to, he just wants to throw it.  If you bring in more corners and try to play man, you might awaken the Hogs running game that has been in slumber the first three weeks of this season.  If you line up with your base defense and think your safeties or linebackers can keep these receivers from making big plays, think differently.  If you forget about Chris Gragg the TE or Ronnie Wingo the RB in the pass game, you'll get burned quickly.  If Alabama can't get to Wilson and get him down early, he could settle in and find the weak link in the defense to break big plays.

Arkansas' Tyler Wilson vs Nick Saban's complex defensive blitz packages, advantage Saban

Tyler Wilson is very capable, but Saban has made a lot of QB's look silly by bringing pressure from places you never expect it.  If the Hogs can't pick up the blitz early and effectively you'll see Wilson spending a lot of time on his back.  That'll cause some early throws and potential mistakes from Wilson, and if he throws more than one pick in this game I give the Hogs less than 1% chance of winning.

Alabama's Offensive Line vs Arkansas' Defensive Front, very slight advantage Arkansas

Arkansas has shown flashes of competence on defense this year and the defensive front is without question the best unit of the defense, but I'm not sure it's enough to get pressure with just four.  The Hogs still have LB Jerry Franklin, LB/S Jerico Nelson, and Newcomer LB Alonzo Highsmith which have done an excellent job this year stuffing the run and limiting big plays that start with short throws.  Their ability to blitz from different places could confuse McCarron and force some ill advised throws into the hands of the Razorback secondary.  Trent Richardson will be slowed but not stopped, so it's imperative that when he gets a small seam he takes it for a short gain.  The Hogs will give up a big play or two, but they're a tough group to pickup yards on the ground against, so take it when you can get it.  Alabama did find the run game late in last years game, but that was due to a lack of depth up front for the Hogs, Willy Robinson has 8 very capable defensive lineman this year and while they're not the LSU front 3, 4, or 5 whatever they go with, they should be able to at least stay fresh up front.  Alabama's Offensive Line has not been moving people around like the Tide thought they would, and this is going to be without question the best defensive line the Tide have seen so far this year.  Watch this battle when Alabama has the ball, I think this is the most important game within a game.  If Arkansas can keep Alabama under 130 yds rushing as a team, and hurry McCarron into some poor throws watch Petrino and McGee get more conservative with the Hogs offense and if the run game isn't there they'll nickel and dime Alabama down the field with Joe Adams and Cobi Hamilton.  If the Arkansas defensive front is winning this battle, look for a low scoring game, if Alabama is moving the ball on the ground and protecting McCarron, the points will start piling up, possibly for both teams as Petrino and McGee will be forced to try and outscore Bama.

Alabama receivers vs Arkansas' secondary, big advantage to Alabama

Don't get too excited, Bama's passing game is still elementary and while their receivers are highly rated recruits, I wouldn't rank the passing game in the top 5 of the SEC.  The reason I'm taking Bama is the fact that the Hogs secondary is downright pitiful.  They gave up big plays and consistent yardage to Troy, so I have little confidence there are many BCS conference team's receivers I wouldn't take against the Hogs awful secondary.

A.J. McCarron vs the Arkansas defensive scheme, slight edge to Arkansas and Willy Robinson.....IF

I've seen enough of Willy Robinson to know he has mastered one thing......his defense giving up yards to the opposition.  The Hogs usually don't give up many points, but they will definitely give up some yards.  The key to the Hogs defense is actually the Hogs offense.  Watch for the Razorbacks early, if they jump out in front of Bama at the beginning of the game you might see Saban put more on the shoulders of A.J. McCarron to try and make big plays; if he can handle it or not I don't know.  I do know Tramain Thomas has a nose for the ball and in big spots he seems to show up with a big play.  If Arkansas jumps out to an early lead and McCarron has to put the ball in the air a bit more, you'll see the talented DE's Jake Bequette (Questionable for the game), Tank Wright, and Chris Smith of Arkansas able to pin their ears back and disrupt McCarron's timing.  You'll probably see Robert Thomas and DD Jones spending some time in the Bama backfield causing havok, and Tramain Thomas will be the benefactor as the first time McCarron doesn't look him off or pump fake him out of the play, Thomas will be going the other direction with the football.  If Arkansas can't jump out to an early lead, you might see Alabama and Trent Richardson go to work and wear down this Arkansas defense on the ground and give McCarron the play action throws to the TE and FB that Saban loves to use.

Arkansas Special Teams vs Alabama Special Teams, slight advantage Arkansas

Have you seen Joe Adams yet?  And with Dennis Johnson back on kickoff return, the Hogs have all four facets of Special Teams with playmakers in each spot.  The Hogs are in the top of the conference in punt returns, kickoff returns, kickoffs, and punting.  Dylan Breeding the P and Zach Hocker the K are both very good and very consistent.  So Arkansas is 1A, Bama and LSU are 1B and 1C, this is really a wash, but if Saban doesn't remind Mandell to punt it away from Joe Adams, the Hogs might put a quick 6 points on the board.  It's like when Happy Gilmore realizes it's much easier to just hit a hole in one than to putt, Petrino will look at McGee the Offensive Coordinator and say, "that's so much easier than dealing with Bama's defense, let's just score on kick returns every time."  Look for Mandell to punt away from the Hogs returners in this one, a lot of punts out of bounds, and improved field position for the Hogs.

Bobby Petrino versus Nick Saban, slight advantage Nick Saban

There's a small sample size, but Arkansas is 0-3 against Bama since Petrino became the head coach.  While Alabama has always had NFL talent all over the field, with each year Arkansas is getting closer to that level.  The Hogs aren't quite there yet, but I have a feeling if Petrino had Alabama caliber players he'd be raising big crystal trophies at the end of the year too.

Location, HUGE advantage Bama

Alabama is on my very short list of toughest places to play in the country, it doesn't help that the team your playing is among College Football's elite, but the crowd in Tuscaloosa loves their football.  Alabama is especially good on defense at home and have only allowed 2 teams to score more than 20 in Tuscaloosa since Saban arrived.  I don't know if the Hogs can score more than 20, but I bet Petrino and the defense hope they don't have to.

I like the way the Hogs will be playing in late October, but Wilson and the new Offensive Tackles need time to learn how to play in the SEC.  If Alabama can get through Saturday and stay healthy, they're looking more and more like a team that can go undefeated, even with an extremely difficult schedule.

ALABAMA 27 - ARKANSAS 17

I've heard from someone, who's heard from someone, who's heard from an important Razorback player (meaning I don't know jack squat), that Arkansas has been preparing for Alabama since Spring practice.  Everything they've done is in preperation for this game, they've only done things that would give them the best chance to win against Bama, they've been using the first three games as warm-up games and been resting their stars and faking injuries all to mess with Nick Saban.  They've been increasing reps on the defensive line and abbreviating the playbook all for Bama.  IF THIS IS TRUE!!!

ARKANSAS 24 - ALABAMA 23


ENJOY THE FOOTBALL!!!

All I want for Christmas, SEC Wishlist edition

Yesterday, Sept 20th, the Kansas City Star reported that according to a Missouri booster the Tigers had been extended an offer by the SEC.  The booster went on to claim that the SEC desperately wanted Missouri and has for some time, also stated the SEC would be willing to wait until the Big 12 decided if they were going to remain a conference.  So, I got to thinking in my car ride home, what would be the best case scenario for the SEC, the schools, the "other" sports, and the fans.  While the SEC has been dominate in recent years in football, any new conference members must also compete well in baseball where the SEC schools have invested a lot of money.  The SEC needs members as committed to baseball and the olympic sports as the current 12 schools are, plus it wouldn't hurt to pick up a strong academic public school.  Texas A&M instantly becomes the second strongest academic institution in the conference, and we'll consider them already a member for the purposes of this exercise.  So we're looking for three new members to take the SEC to a 16 team league, with 4 divisions.  Whoever the three members are they need to meet the following criteria for me to be happy.

#1 REGIONAL LOCATION

I'm not sure how this Big East that includes schools in Texas, Kansas, and Iowa will work, but I personally don't want to drive to South Bend, IN to follow my team.  It's too far and they have very little in common with "southern" schools, so let's make a list of the regional candidates.

Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (I think they only come as a package deal)
Texas
Missouri
Louisville
Cincinatti
Florida State
Clemson
Miami
Georgia Tech
North Carolina & Duke (would they split up?  I don't think so)
Virginia & Virginia Tech (I'm pretty sure they're a package deal)
West Virginia

#2 COMMITMENT TO FOOTBALL

Let's not mix words, the SEC is a football conference that could improve in a lot of other areas, but football drives athletic budgets and some prospective college students want to attend schools that have great football atmospheres.  So we'll start here, which schools currently make, would make, or have the means to make a serious commitment to compete at a very high level in football?

So I think this removes Louisville and Cincinatti, they were reaches anyways, but the other teams either have a commitment to football or have the means to make a commitment to football.

#3 LARGE, PASSIONATE FAN BASES

Most teams in the SEC have great fan bases, they travel well, there's not a better tailgating conference, and the traditions of the SEC are great.  War Eagle, Woo Pig Sooie, Rocky Top, Hottie Totty, Rammer Jammer, Gator Chomp, Ashley Judd, and the now illegal cowbells.  I don't even need to mention LSU, they're fans don't need coordinated cheers, ridiculous fans are the tradition at LSU.  What schools would carry their traditions into the SEC and which fan bases would be most excited about competing at the highest level?

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are easy, there's a bigger base of OU fans, but only a handful of them have the same passion the OSU fans have and both have a great deal of passion for their teams.  These two easily pass the test.
Texas obviously passes, possibly the largest fan base in football, good traditions, great gameday atmosphere.
Missouri, hmmmm, not a whole lot of college football tradition, but South Carolina didn't have a ton of tradition before coming into the SEC, and look at what has happened with that fan base over the last decade, they're intense!  Missouri does have a large alumni base and with an upgraded conference could turn on the passion, we'll give them a pass, but I'm skeptical.
Other than Texas, Florida State, Clemson, and West Virginia probably have the strongest fan bases with great traditions on the list.  We'll say they pass.
North Carolina/Duke - I'd take North Carolina, but I'm going to say something that might be slightly controversial.  Because SEC schools leave something to be desired academically, the alumni bases are limited in their careers to the borders of their own state.  Sure, if you go to Alabama, you could move up to New York, Chicago, or Boston and work in high finance with the Harvard and MIT grads, but I would be shocked if more than 2 people per year get that opportunity from Alabama.  I would venture to say, Vanderbilt excluded, the graduates of the SEC, on average 80-85%, stay in that state.  That's where they know people and we all know that knowing someone is the key to being employed.  Not like they don't become successful and lead great lives, they do, but they're not moving all over the world like graduates from Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia are.  For that reason schools like Alabama can build a 100,000 seat stadium and not worry if it's going to sell out every game, it is.

So I'm removing Miami, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke due to the fact that it takes a great fan base to be an SEC school, and maybe I'm just not familiar enough with the passion of these schools, but it's not at SEC levels.

#4 SOMEBODIES GOT TO BE SMART AROUND HERE

For those that don't really follow academic rankings, Missouri is one of the top 5 schools (1. Texas, 2. Texas A&M, 3. Baylor, 4/5 Missouri/Kansas if you disagree with this please feel free to enlighten me as to how it really is! haha!) in the Big 12, but a move to the SEC would instantly make Missouri the third strongest academic university in the conference (Vandy, A&M, Missouri).  When you look at the SEC broken down by academics it explains why I think it's so important for the conference to add strong academic universities.

It's funny really, there's Vanderbilt, which is SO far out in front of the other schools, then there's everyone else and how close the rest of the schools are academically is what makes it so imperative that the SEC starts putting more emphasis on academics.  The SEC schools only compete with each other, it's like the Mountain West Conference of academics, who's the best of the worst?  Well, Vanderbilt is the academic version of Boise, but everyone else fights for second place, second place in the SEC means an NR when the National Lists roll out (NR=Not Ranked).  The SEC has really done a good thing by picking up A&M, it's a very good academic institution.  If we're looking for similar schools, Florida State, Clemson, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are perfect candidates, they would fit right in to the SEC mentality: Football first, Football second, other sports third, partying fourth, then academics.  If they wanted to increase the overall level of academics in the SEC they would add a school like Missouri or Georgia Tech.  Missouri is a better example, they're a little closer to the pack and a school like Arkansas would take it as a challenge to compete with Missouri and A&M academically in this region of the SEC.  They wouldn't want the smart kids that live between Fayetteville and Columbia to pick Missouri every time because they're superior academically, not if Missouri ends up in the conference anyways.  Same thing goes if the SEC added Georgia Tech, don't think Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida wouldn't begin trying to catch GT academically.  That's good for everyone in the Conference and South in general, a more educated South wouldn't be a bad thing.

Texas is the prize in this category, they're on par with other great public schools like Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Michigan, and Cal, Texas and Michigan probably lead this list academically but not by much.  If you were to add Texas to the SEC you'd be getting a great academic school, a great football program, a huge fan base, big tv markets, and an emphasis on "other" sports.

#4 "OTHER" SPORTS

The SEC has great baseball, the stadiums and fans are awesome in the SEC.  Recently, Arkansas had to go out West and play in a regional with Arizona State.  I heard about a great post from an Arizona State fan that got onto the Arkansas message boards.  He/She said, "I can't wait for the 'rednecks' to get out here and see this great stadium and the 3,500 fans that go crazy at these games."  The next post from a Razorback fan was, "LOL," which means Laugh Out Loud or Lots Of Laughs.  The Arizona State fan who was just talking some smack for his team should have looked at the NCAA attendance numbers, he would have realized that Arkansas is #2 or #3 every year in attendance, with around 7,700 a game.  This was said in a year where Arkansas played a three game series at LSU who has been #1 in attendance the last 15 years and averages 10,600.  To round out the top ten, Ole Miss, Miss St, and South Carolina  accompany Arkansas and LSU in the top 6, all average over 6,000 at baseball games, the only non-SEC school in the top 6.....Texas.  Clemson, Florida State, and Texas A&M finish out the top 9 schools, A&M's already in and Clemson and Florida State are on the list.

A&M has already won the last two track and field national championships a sport which the SEC has held down for quite some time.  For those that might disagree just Google John McDonnell, then add what LSU has done in track and field and there's no room left to argue.

Basketball is a concern in the SEC, but since Kentucky is the premier basketball school in the country it's hard to say it's not important to the league.  Hopefully, SEC basketball will get better and it would if they were to add North Carolina and Duke, or Georgia Tech.

#5 ADDITIONAL TV MARKETS

This is where Texas and Missouri make the most sense, along with Virginia & Virginia Tech or North Carolina & Duke.  North Carolina is a very large state with great resources and would be a great addition for CBS and ESPN's telecasts.  Virginia is also a very large state with a strong DC market, CBS and ESPN would love to pickup those 8 million sets of eyes and would pay the SEC schools a pretty penny to do it.  Texas A&M was a great contribution because Texas is the prize of college football, even though California has more people, Texas has a much larger football audience.  The SEC has been very firm on revenue sharing for the schools and I would hope if Texas were to become a member they would require the Longhorns to share equally with the other 15 members.  This is non-negotiable for me, there's no extra deal, no other stipulations, if Texas wants to be a part, they'll be an equal part just like Vanderbilt and get the same revenue sharing deal.  If you want to have the Longhorn network, by all means go ahead, but you're sharing the revenue with Ole Miss and everyone else Texas. This is probably the most important thing the SEC is looking at, additional revenue, but it's fifth on my list because I know that additional revenue is generated by great football.  The SEC is the richest and most powerful conference right now, and they do it with what is generally known to be the poorest and smallest states in the Union.  Other than Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee the other states have very small populations and very few city centers.  New Orleans, Tampa, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Nashville, and Memphis are the only very large towns in the general reach of the conference, the population of the six are outmatched by the four biggest cities in Texas alone, not to mention the Big 12 also includes Oklahoma City, Kansas City, St. Louis, and did include Denver and Omaha.  The population base of the states involved in the Big 12 FAR exceeds that of the SEC, yet the Big 12 is disintegrating as I type and the SEC is looking to increase their stranglehold on college football.  That's because TV markets don't make great football or great conferences, great football draws interest from TV markets.

I've gone in so many circles I don't know what to say, each school on the list has at least one pro and con.  I know it's hard to say this because Texas A&M was trying to get AWAY from Texas, but if the SEC requires a level playing field, maybe the Aggies would be okay extending the great rivalry.

So if we're drawing up sides, I'd say 1A:

The North East division
Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and West Virginia (they didn't get talked about much, but a great fit, academically similar, good basketball, great fans, small, overlooked state, fits in perfectly)

The South East division
Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Clemson (it's all about traditions and fan base, Clemson fits in this category, they've got great facilities and with SEC level money going into their football program they would only improve, question is, would South Carolina ever agree?)

The East West division
Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss St

The West West division
LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Texas (in my opinion A&M and Texas were the best candidates from the Big 12, OU's football program is very attractive, but it's not ALL about football, just mostly about football).

Good Luck to A&M and Arkansas trying to play through Texas and LSU every year, but can you imagine the last weekend in college football?  Ark vs LSU and A&M vs Texas, you know the division would be up for grabs all the way through the season!

1B:

The North East division
Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina

The South East division
Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida (this becomes a NASTY little four team group, there will be years where the two best teams in all of college football are right here in this division)

The South West division
Ole Miss, Miss St, LSU, Texas A&M

The North West division
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri (THIS would be awesome, 4 schools in a very close proximity battling it out, obviously OU holds the upper hand in football, but this is exciting basketball, baseball, and fan rivalry.  When you get schools that are this close, you get a lot of overlapping fan bases and that makes for great sports talk radio and friendly, sometimes unfriendly, banter back and forth).

Either 1A or 1B, I don't care, but conference realignment is fun, because NEW IS FUN!!!  If in five years Oklahoma were to do a home and home football series with Nebraska, the whole world will tune in to see the old rivalry renewed.  You can't make rivalries go away with conference realignment, you just might not play them as often.

Boise to the SEC

Boise catches a lot of grief for their soft schedule and deservedly so.  The question I have is, what if Boise played an SEC schedule, let's make it fair I mean no SEC team goes up against back to back to back top ten teams, or do they?

What if Boise were in the SEC instead of Tennessee, could they win the East and play for the SEC Championship if they had Tennessee's schedule?

W vs Montana, we all know Boise can take care of business against the patsy's.
W vs Cincinatti, the Bearcats are a quality team, but since Kelly left they've struggled with consistency
? at #15 Florida, can Boise go into The Swamp and deal with the defensive studs up front for Florida
W vs Buffalo, another patsy another W for the Broncos
W vs Georgia, we've already seen that game and Boise can beat Georgia
L vs #3 LSU, does anyone in the country really believe Boise could be the Tigers?
L at #2 Alabama, come on, Boise over Bama? the week after they get beaten up by LSU
? vs #10 South Carolina, if it were in Columbia it would be an easier call, but I'll give Boise a chance
W vs Middle Tennessee St, yep, they can definitely roll the patsies
L at #14 Arkansas, I'm not sure what the outcome would be on the blue turf, but in Fayetteville, good luck
W vs Vanderbilt, Franklin's got them playing some D, but not good enough to beat the Broncos
W at Kentucky, the Cats have good and bad years, but this isn't going to be a good one

So they've got three losses with two question marks, not bad, but it doesn't quite win the East.  That was a tough schedule, let's pick a different team and see how Boise would fare.  You did notice the back to back to back top ten opponents in there didn't you?

Let's pick a team from the West, let's say, Ole Miss.

W vs BYU, tough game, but I give the edge to the Broncos in Boise
W vs Southern Illinois, yep, they can still roll over the other "sisters of the poor"
W at Vanderbilt, it's a much closer game in Nashville, but I still give Boise the upper hand
W vs Georgia, yep, they can still beat the Dogs
W at Fresno State, that's funny, Boise does play Fresno this year, it's one of their tougher games
L vs #2 Alabama, doesn't matter how you slice it, you can't slice Alabama's D
? vs #14 Arkansas, in Boise this becomes an interesting matchup, I give a slight edge to the Hogs....but
? at Auburn, some of you may laugh after Clemson beat Auburn easily, but the Broncs just got done playing two very physical games, they're tired, hurting, and aren't sure how to finish close games, I mean normally their starters get to sit out the 4th quarter, what's with this playing an entire game business?
W at Kentucky, regardless of how tired and hurt Boise is, the Cats just don't have enough to get it done
W vs Louisiana Tech, WHEW, they needed a breather game so Kellen Moore could sit out a quarter
L vs #3 LSU, doesn't matter where it's played, LSU just keeps rotating fresh playmakers onto the field
? at Miss St, some may argue with the ?, but you just got beaten down by LSU's front and then Miss St is trying to pound the ball down your throat, advantage Bulldogs

A little better with this schedule, only two for sure losses, but probably more like 3 or 4, not going to win the West, but maybe an Outback Bowl, possibly Cotton Bowl, for the Broncos.

Gosh darnit, Oregon played for a National Championship and they're not in the SEC, Boise doesn't have to go through an SEC schedule to be worthy.  Very true, this year I think the National Championship game will be Oklahoma and Wisconsin, let's see if the Broncos could survive the Sooners schedule.

W vs Tulsa
? at #5 Florida State, I think Boise would win this one, they've proven they can beat 1 quality team
W vs Missouri
W vs Ball State
W vs #24 Texas, can Boise really go into a Neutral site and beat a Texas, they're good at neutral sites
W at Kansas
W at Texas Tech, the grind of quality opponents is upon them now, they should beat Tech
W at Kansas State, there were years when I'd say K State, but this isn't one of them
L vs #7 Texas A&M, they've now had a handful of injuries to key players, and the Aggies are too good
W at Baylor, Robert Griffin is the real deal, still a slight edge to Boise
W vs Iowa State
L at #8 Oklahoma State, have you seen Justin Blackmon?

Still only two losses, maybe three losses, and they were in many more games, but two losses doesn't win the Conference Championship and Boise's stuck in the Cotton Bowl or Holiday Bowl

If they played Wisconsin's schedule

W vs UNLV
W vs Oregon State
W vs Northern Illinois
W vs South Dakota
? vs Nebraska, the Huskers are a step up, but not enough to beat Boise on the blue turf
W vs Indiana
? at Michigan State, the Spartans are big and physical, Boise has a tough time in East Lansing
W at Ohio State, yep, everyone else is going to beat them, why not Boise
W vs Purdue
W at Minnesota
W at Illinois
W vs Penn State

So maybe I was wrong, I should have been getting on the the Badgers for such a weak schedule.  So the question I have for the readers, what would Boise's record be if they were in the SEC this year?  If they finished better than 10-2, I would be absolutely shocked.  This is not the Boise team that upset Oklahoma, the uniforms and colors are similar, but the faces are different.  Let's start evaluating Boise the way we evaluate the real National Title contenders, year by year.  We don't talk about the reasons why Texas should play for a National Championship each year because they beat the mighty USC Trojans in an incredible Vince Young led 2006 Rose Bowl victory!!!  What if Alabama were to play Boise's schedule?  Nah, let's be even more controversial, what if Arkansas were to play Boise's schedule?

W vs Georgia at the Georgia Dome, Georgia is a decent SEC team that will finish 8th or 9th in the league.
W at Toledo, Tyler Wilson throws for 345 and Joe Adams returns two punts for TD's
W vs Tulsa, no need to elaborate
W vs Nevada, Tyler Wilson has now thrown for over 1200 yards, but only one game was televised so far
W at Fresno State, no need to argue with this Herbstreit
W at Colorado State, still only 1 televised game so far, Tyler Wilson has thrown for 2000 yards
W vs Air Force, the ground attack struggles with big, athletic defensive fronts
W at UNLV
W vs TCU, this is not last year's TCU team, but even if it were advantage Hogs in Fayetteville
W at San Diego State
W vs Wyoming
W vs New Mexico, the Hogs have actually played New Mexico at home this year, Hogs won 52-3

Alright, so this Arkansas team is the same team that will probably finish 2nd or 3rd in the SEC West this year with 1 or 2 losses, they won't get a chance to play for their own conference championship and if the SEC Champ plays for a National Championship again, the Hogs will be in line with 2 or 3 other teams for that 2nd spot in the BCS.  How is no one seeing why allowing Boise State to play such a weak schedule and then comparing them to teams like Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, or Wisconsin is just crazy.  I'm not saying they're not the best team in the country, all I'm saying is if they are, they need to prove it before they get a shot at a Title.

BE SURE TO VOTE FOR HOW BOISE WOULD FINISH  =>=>=>=>=>=>=>======>>>>>>

Week 3, it's never quite as bad as it seems

Lou Holtz would tell his teams, "Men, things are never quite as good as they seem and they're never quite as bad as they seem."  After yesterday and some comments from readers I've received I can say, I was wrong on some things.  Maybe everything I said will play out in the end, but as of yesterday's football, I need to make some amendments.  Starting with my rant about Notre Dame's unworthy media coverage.

IT'S NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS IT SEEMS

Well played Notre Dame, well played.  I can't stand the fact that you were getting more coverage than the Michigan State team that I thought had a chance to win the Big 10.  So, I'm eating my words this morning and that's alright.  Notre Dame's schedule gets much easier from here, they do have USC in South Bend on October 22, and at Stanford in the last game of the season.  If Notre Dame can go 9-3 I would call that a HUGE step in the right direction for Brian Kelly, and after that display of pass coverage yesterday I would give them a solid chance to do so.  Does it warrant as much coverage as OU, Bama, and Wisconsin?  NO, but this is a much better team than I thought.

Florida is good, Florida is very, very good.  We should have known, it's not like Urban Meyer left a bunch of chumps or Mountain West players in the program when he left, no, he just got top 5 recruiting class after top 5 class while coaching and now Willy boy Muschamp will have a legitimate shot at winning the East.  Brantley still doesn't look quite like he was advertised coming out of high school, but Charlie Weiss is doing a great job with him.  The Gators are only going to get better and with the caliber of athlete at DT, DE, and LB in Gainesville, Muschamp is loving the different blitz packages he can use to cause problems for the new QB's of the SEC.  Beating a bad team with a good quarterback is not what I would call a signature victory for Muschamp, but it's a start, will Florida lose a few this year? yes, but will they be in games late with a chance to win?  Absolutely, I can't imagine this team getting blown out, not with that defense.

Texas might have found their guy at QB, which is tough to understand given he's the guy the offense was built for starting 6 years ago.  No doubt about this, they've found their running back!  Malcolm Brown the true freshman is the real deal, quick, fast, explosive, and surprisingly difficult to bring down even though he hasn't had a full year in that really good Texas strength and conditioning program.  If you're a RB recruit thinking about Texas this year, think again, Malcolm Brown will be holding that job down for awhile.  Case McCoy is his older brother, Colt.  He scrambles around, makes good throws, probably has a little bigger arm than Colt, but doesn't need a huge arm, he can extend plays and use his legs to pickup yards.  Is the spread back in Austin?  I sure hope so, college football is better when Texas is good and everyone can hate them for it.  The Brown run game with McCoy to Shipley combination could bring that offense back from the grave, and if the defense can make some improvements they could potentially challenge for #2 in the Big 12/10.

Might as well say it, GOOD LUCK beating the Sooners this year.  While I'm still not sure how overrated Florida State is, I think they're less overrated than I thought.  They can really make plays on defense and EJ Manuel really impressed me while he was in.  Obviously, like any NCAA QB with 3 games under his belt, he needs some time to realize where he can and can't throw the ball.  Oklahoma, Landry Jones, Ryan Broyles, that incredible offensive line, and Dominique Whaley looked like a team on a mission to win a National Championship.  I'm finding it hard to see the Sooners dropping a game on their remaining schedule, especially the way they played on the road in a very unfamiliar place.

IT'S NOT QUITE AS BAD AS IT SEEMS

Florida State, great job, great job EJ Manuel, great job defense, great job Jimbo Fisher.  I didn't think you had a chance to hang with the Sooners like you did and if you get a couple of throws back the outcome could be very different.  Florida State should win the ACC outright and win easily.  Although, Miami and Virginia Tech are formidable foes, it's going to be tough to beat the Noles this year.

Michigan State still has a good chance to win the Legends Division, especially after I watched a very mediocre Nebraska team get punched in the mouth at the line of scrimmage and the Huskers (Martinez excluded) looked slow.  Maybe Stevie boy has just done some serious recruiting at Washington, but I'm fairly certain Nebraska is not near as fast as I thought they were.  So it's a Michigan State, Michigan, and Nebraska chase for the Legends Division title and while I'll still give the edge to Michigan State even after the egg they layed yesterday, I lost just as much respect for Nebraska.

I give Nebraska essentially no chance to go into Madison and get a W, that Badgers team just looks so, so good.  Russell Wilson is quickly becoming one of my favorites for the Heisman this year.  That running game is just punishing, and if that defensive secondary can hold up in East Lansing, I don't see how Wisconsin loses a game this year.  I'll never say a trip into The Shoe is a guaranteed W, but the level of play we're accustomed to in Columbus is nowhere near the reality that exists this year.

Ohio State's offense IS what we know it to be, overrated and over compensated.  After Miami's mediocre offense lit them up, it's hard to see the Buckeye's creating many storylines, well other than those related to ineligible players.  The battle of the ineligibility bowl  proves why cheaters never prosper, well actually the cheaters prospered but everyone else is going to face stiff consequences.  Can you imagine being the Ohio State players?  You'd have to be frustrated with your alumni base, I mean Come'on Ohio State alums!!!  Miami players were partying with a millionaire criminal, partying on yachts with paid entertainment, paryting in high profile places with high profile people, and you had your prized players hanging out in a tattoo parlor.  A tattoo parlor is the best you got?  If I'm a Buckeye this morning I'm transferring to Miami!!!  Why would I hang out in the cold, terrible town of Columbus Ohio when I could go to South Beach, hang out with "models," and party with millionaires?  It's not like I have anything to do after Thanksgiving either way.

Speaking of "not as bad as it seems," the SEC looked terrible in Week 3.  Auburn, who we knew going into this year would be in the bottom half of the West, finally looked like they were suppose to, inept.  They got rocked by Clemson and the game wasn't quite as close as the score made it seem, Clemson should have won more decisively.  South Carolina seemed completely disinterested in football yesterday and were lucky to get out with a W against Navy.  They were coming off of an emotional win over Georgia and came home to Navy challenging the talented LB's of SC all night definitely qualifies as a trap game, and SC almost got trapped.  Arkansas came out and just ROLLED over Troy early, but the defensive secondary looks incapable of stopping anyone.  This defense was suppose to be better and I just don't think the improvement is going to be enough.  Troy moved the ball with ease and the Hogs passing game looked terrible.  The second half and final score should give Razorback fans reason to be concerned going into Tuscaloosa next week, after what I saw my first reaction was, "CRAP, Alabama is going to murder Arkansas."  After watching the first half back again and realizing how difficult it must be for this Razorback team to play 6 halves of meaningless football just before a bigtime matchup with Bama, it's possible the Hogs got bored and came out disinterested in the second half.  If that second half team shows up against Bama, it's going to get ugly, but if the first 5 halves of this season's team shows up, it's going to be a lot of fun to watch on CBS at 2:30 CT next Saturday.

Even after all the great football yesterday, the highlight was conference realignment.  Pittsburgh and Syracuse in the ACC will mean a very, very good slate of basketball games.  I can't wait to watch the basketball in the ACC when all this gets ironed out, especially if the ACC also adds UConn and Rutgers in the next few days, but if I'm Florida State, Virginia Tech, or Miami, do I want to stick around in a conference that is clearly showing they have no interest in increasing the caliber of the biggest money sport, football?  Maybe, it'll be good to be the first 16 team conference, but if I'm a high profile football recruit thinking about Florida State or Virginia Tech I'm starting to realize the number of games NOT on television is increasing, not decreasing.

Why do we have to hear about Notre Dame?

As I'm sure everyone else is, I'm SICK of hearing about Notre Dame all the time!!!  Get over it College Football media, they don't deserve two minutes of coverage on College Gameday or any other program.  Oh, I get it, because they're among the top 3 storied programs in college football they don't really drop out of conversation.  Remember when Oklahoma and Alabama went through periods of losing seasons and every year fans were hopeful for a bowl game?

For Oklahoma it was the 90s just before Stoops showed up, I remember it was so easy to get tickets that when my family moved there in 97, my dad instantly had season tickets on the 4th row, 20 yd line.  Two years later you had to be related to a player or coach to get into the building.  It was the way college football media coverage should be, Stoops first year if you wanted to see the game, you had to go to the game.  Stoops second year, they beat Texas decisively and the next thing you know College Gameday is setup about 50 ft from where I was sitting.  I'll never forget it, Nebraska rolled in with Eric Crouch and all the talent on defense, Nebraska jumped on OU early and then Josh Heupel dissected that Blackshirts D like he was a brain surgeon.  Oklahoma won the National Championship that year and since have deserved every bit of coverage they receive.

Alabama was good, then bad, then good again in the time that Notre Dames been just terrible and they received media coverage accordingly.  Geez, even last year after they lost two you didn't hear much about Bama for the rest of the season, but Notre Dame was hoping for a bowl and we got Notre Dame propaganda shoved down our throats.  What gives ESPN???  How is that when Alabama, arguably the most prominent college football program of all time, has a bad season the coverage drops off, but when Notre Dame has 15 bad seasons it's like they're always in the running for a National Championship?

It's the fan base, right, the biggest fan base in the sport?  Yeah, I lived in Boston recently where I encountered a large number of Irish Catholic Notre Dame "fans," they barely watch the games, and they're certainly not college football fans in general.  There's no question that Texas, USC, Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn State have fan bases as big as the Irish, real fan bases, that watch the games and like college football.  Some of them actually attended the school, which is not something you can say for Notre Dame.  So it must be something else, it's the money, Notre Dame has a lot of money.

For those that don't follow the financial situations of major universities, let me enlighten you.  Only Harvard has more money than Texas, and number 3 isn't that close.  Sure after Harvard, Texas, the Ivy League schools, you'll find Notre Dame, and the upper tier state schools like Virginia, Michigan, and North Carolina.  Michigan's got just as much money, if not more, and while they get coverage each time they change coaches, it was hard to find Michigan games on TV before Shoelace showed up.  Now Denard Robinson and a much improved defense take care of a highly overrated Notre Dame team and ESPN is claiming they're back.  Is that all it takes to be back?  Yes, since Notre Dame was a good team, Michigan has been good, bad, good, bad, and possibly good again, and with each season came a change in coverage time.  If Notre Dame gets this much coverage when they SUCK, I don't want to see how far up Brian Kelly's hind parts Herbstreit and ESPN will be if they actually formulate a decent program again.

So what is it about Notre Dame that keeps people talking about them?  How do you stay interested in a team that is hoping to make a bowl game year in and year out?  Mississippi St, Texas Tech, Arizona, Illinois, and the plethora of other schools that "hope" to make a bowl game each year don't get mentioned a lick until they play a big time program, but not Notre Dame, not an Irish team that will be lucky to get a bid to the Sun Bowl this year.  In my opinion, there are more than 30 schools better than Notre Dame and I want to hear about them, I'm a college football fan who watches the pregame shows religiously, watches the games twice so I can evaluate different players, reads ESPN articles every night and on my phone when I'm "reading a magazine."  I thought I was the ESPN consumer, I thought ESPN was a network about sports, for sports enthusiasts.  Remember ESPN, remember me?  Remember College Gameday crew?  Remember who wanted your show to go to an hour and then to two hours because they can't get enough college football analysis?  The Notre Dame run is over, if they ever get it back I would love to hear about them, but there is SO much other stuff to talk about today, so please, if it's alright with you, talk about the Michigan State team that has a chance to win the Big 10/12, not about "what's wrong with the Irish." I can tell you what's wrong Herbstreit, THEY SUCK, and have for some time now.  Next Topic.

Why the SEC will win again

Everyone knows the SEC is 5 for 5 in the last 5 National Championship games and the SEC owns 7 of the 13 total BCS Championships.  Two, possibly 3, of those will be vacated due to compliance infractions on Miami and USC, Ohio State pending investigation.  I still personally believe sCam Newton and Auburn will be vacating their NC, so we'll say, 4 of the last 4 were won by the SEC and 6 of 9 will actually be "recorded."

This year, there doesn't appear to be a dominate SEC team in the East or West, although the West looks like a much more competitive group.  So, is this the year the SEC streak comes to an end?  I think it's a strong possibility, given how evenly matched the top of the SEC West appears to be, but if a team from the West comes through that gauntlet with one loss, is that enough to get the bid to NOLA?

The four obvious candidates, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and South Carolina all have incredible strengths and glaring weaknesses.  Alabama's elementary passing game will limit long scoring plays, but it's a lot harder to find weaknesses at Bama than the other three.  Even when LSU gets Jordan Jefferson back, they've still got Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, their offense looks awful, I can't imagine what Kragthorpe is thinking right now about the recent QB recruiting at LSU.  Yes, LSU can run the ball and no team in college football has athleticism like LSU does, not even Bama or Florida, but athleticism doesn't win games, points do.  If LSU can convert a TD on special teams and defense in every game this year, they will have an excellent chance to run the table and win the National Championship, but can they beat a team that scores points early and forces them to throw the ball?  You would think South Carolina with Garcia, Lattimore, Jeffery and a very athletic defense would have the fewest question marks, but Georgia, who couldn't move the ball against Boise, looked like the New England Patriots against that talented SC defense.  If Garcia throws it to the right team, the rest of the pieces are in place for SC to have a special year.  Marcus Lattimore is the best back in the country and it's getting harder and harder to argue after every performance.  Right now Arkansas has the most questions, where's a run game, can Tyler Wilson get it done, will Greg Childs get back to the dominate Greg Childs of the last two seasons, can the defense get pressure on the QB, and
can the offensive line gel in time for the September 24th trip to Tuscaloosa.  If you're a Hog fan you have to be nervous about finishing 4th or 5th in the West this year.

South Carolina by far has the easiest schedule of the four, but a nasty little road trip in the middle of the year could put the Gamecocks on the outside looking in.  They do not play LSU or Alabama this year, but Oct 15th at Miss St, Oct 29th at Tenn, and Nov 5th at Arkansas will be a stretch like no other team outside the SEC will face all year, and they're not even playing the two best teams in the league.  Miss St's offense is still difficult to watch and South Carolina, while they're not as deep as LSU, can run around and make plays on defense very similar to LSU, so I like the road trip to start off with a W.  Tennessee is much improved on offense and Tyler Bray could be a very special player for the Vols, but I'm not sure Tennessee's defense could stop my intramural flag football team from scoring, so I'll say toss up, "the team with the most points will win the game" ~Lou Holtz.  I'll get back to their trip to Fayetteville in a minute.  They come home tired, possibly injured, probably with at least 1 loss and get Florida who will be much more comfortable with the new coaching staff.  I think Florida prevails and South Carolina is in Atlanta for the SEC Championship with two losses.

Alabama just got done providing further proof that there is a fundamental difference in the kinds of athletes in the South versus the North.  I'm not sure what it is, but Alabama was bigger, faster, stronger, quicker, and tougher than Penn State in all aspects of that game.  The Tide get both Arkansas and LSU at home, don't have to play South Carolina, and so far look like the championship caliber team you expect from Saban, but I don't think it's that easy for Bama.  The last thing you want if you're Bama is to play anyone in Bryant-Denny when the sun is still out.  One of the most electric and exciting atmosphere's in the country just isn't the same during the day, maybe the fans haven't had enough time to "lube up" before the game.  Whatever it is, they have to deal with it against Arkansas in two weeks.  We'll know more about the Hogs after this week with Troy, but I have a feeling Petrino is playing his cards really close to the vest this year.  He has one SEC West foe left to beat and Saban is that foe, and you better believe Petrino will have something special planned for Bama.  I can't call this one, but right now I'm favoring Alabama, they just play the game so well and that swarming defense can really take a team out of it's rhythm.  Last year was an emotional win for Bama and this year will be as well, look for another let down after beating Arkansas.  What's the last place you want to go after a big win?  The Swamp!!!  A trip to Florida comes the next week with a brand new offense, brand new defense, speed, athleticism, depth (it's not like Urban Meyer stopped recruiting quality kids after two National Championships).  Willy Muschamp gets his first big signature win by upsetting the #1 ranked Tide and brings everyone back into the picture.  A fairly manageble schedule with Ole Miss on the road, Tenn at home, a bye week and then LSU comes to Tuscaloosa.  Look for Saban's defense to overplay the run and allow Jordan Jefferson to have a big day throwing to the most underrated receiving core in College Football.  LSU wins in Les Miles fashion, meaning, they probably should have lost.  That gives Bama two losses and with South Carolina on the other side with two or three losses the SEC might be looking at the end of their streak.

No one in the country should get more respect than LSU for the way they schedule!  It's like they're trying to lose a couple, but it's incredible for the fans and fans of college football in general.  The probably LSU will run into this year is that some teams can actually score the ball.  Look for LSU to drop one in October to Florida at home, Tenn on the road, or Auburn at home.  I think Charlie Weiss will be able to turn Brantley into enough of a threat that with all that speed and talent around him he can put the ball in the end zone.  We know what Tyler Bray can do at this point and I like him over the next couple of years to return that Tennessee program to the competition level they're use to.  And never count out Gus Malzahn and what he's able to create with that Auburn spread attack, teams that can score and score early will put pressure on the QB's of LSU and even though all three of these games will be close, I think it's Auburn that comes into Death Valley and delivers the L to LSU.  LSU does rally the troops and walks out of Tuscaloosa with a W, but Arkansas is coming in for their annual post Thanksgiving game on Nov 25th and I think it might be an SEC West deciding game.

Arkansas has two incredible difficult hurdles, to Tuscaloosa and to Baton Rouge, but the rest of the schedule sets up pretty nicely.  The Hogs get Miss St, Auburn, and South Carolina at home, road games at Vanderbilt and Ole Miss should be manageable.  Unfortunately for South Carolina, the Hogs love playing run defense and had no problems containing Lattimore last year in Columbia.  Alshon Jeffery had a couple of catches, but Arkansas pulled away early and didn't take their foot off the gas.  That confidence, along with the reemergence of Greg Childs and a running game in the latter weeks is why Arkansas gets it done against SC.  If they stay healthy they'll have a very good shot at getting to Thanksgiving with just the loss to Bama on their resume.  Can the Hogs win in Baton Rouge?  The Arkansas v LSU game is always a treat for college football fans, overtimes, last second field goals, late scoring drives, a great defense verse a great offense, and most importantly, it's on the day after Thanksgiving.  I can't make a prediction on the game just yet, my early lean is to Arkansas just because they can really score points with that sophisticated passing attack and future NFL receivers all over the field.  I'm really excited about the Special Teams of Arkansas verse the Special Teams of LSU, but I give the edge to Arkansas this year.  I can say with quite a bit of certainty that Arkansas' defense will outplay LSU's offense, I'd like more time to decide on Arkansas offense vs the LSU defense, but right now I'll say LSU wins that battle, (one name: Tyrann Mathieu, my favorite player to watch in sports right now), and you have to know Les Miles wins the intangibles category every game.

So, a one loss LSU or one loss Arkansas roll into Atlanta and take care of business against a South Carolina team that looked completely dissinterested in winning the SEC Championship last year.  I wish I could say that one team rolls through the SEC and comes out without a loss, that way the SEC could go to NOLA and make it 6 in a row and maybe that will happen, I just don't see it this year.

The only way the SEC makes it back to the BCS Championship is by watching other top teams play their way out of a perfect season.  We'll know a lot more about Florida State this weekend and their viability toward the National landscape, but there's just something about the way an older brother can always whip the younger brother and I anticipate Bob Stoops outright whipping Mark's very overrated defense.  The Sooners defense introduces some new faces which will give up some plays early, but like Bob Stoops defenses always do, they'll grow up during the game.  Oklahoma comes from behind and beats Florida State by a couple of scores on Saturday.  That leaves Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, to knock off the Sooners and while I think Texas A&M is much improved, they're not enough improved to beat OU in what I think is the second toughest place to play in college football, Norman's Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium.  OU will roll A&M in Norman, and before the A&M faithful get all antsy just remember 2002 when you beat Mr Stoops in College Station and the next year and very upset Sooner team beat the living maroon out of you in Norman 77-0.  Franchione got mad because he felt Bobby was running the score up, I don't know Bob personally, but I was at the game and yes, he was just running the score up because he can.  The Aggies got the best of the Sooners last year, but you shouldn't have pissed off Bobby the year before you try to make a National Championship run.  Texas A&M will have a great season, I think Fuller is among the top 5 WR's in the country and with that long athletic frame he'll cause some problems for the weaker defenses (OU not included) of the Big 12/10.  A&M finishes second in the conference behind Oklahoma, and if no one is able to knock off the Sooners I think it'll be good enough to get them into the Fiesta Bowl.  The biggest game for OU is the last game for OU, Bedlam.  If this isn't the year Gundy gets his first W over Oklahoma, then OU will run the table as the #1 team and be watching the conference championship games closely to see who will be waiting when they get there.

Boise State has a much more difficult schedule than in years past, but that's like saying Obama is a good President because he got the unemployment rate down from 9.2% to 8.8%, it's still a terrible unemployment rate and Boise still has a laughable path to an undefeated season.  They do have Nevada, Air Force, and TCU which are all still warm up games for mid level teams in the BCS conferences.  Not to mention, all their "big" games are in Boise.  I heard Herbstreit the other day say, "I've got Oct 8th circled, that's when Boise goes to Fresno State."  Sometimes I want to slap Herbstreit and Mark May mid sentence and be like, "really, really, that's what you have circled!!!"  Fresno State went to Nebraska, you didn't have that one circled, they're playing Ole Miss at home, I didn't hear you circled that one, why is that?  Oh, because Nebraska ROLLED Fresno State by two touchdowns as did California, that JUGGERNAUT of college football in Berkley!!!  Give me a break Herbstreit, if Boise's biggest win is Fresno State and Georgia (which it will be), you'll have to take into account that half the SEC beat Georgia, so it's not like that earns you the right to play for a National Championship.  Boise will finish the year undefeated and they may get the opportunity to play in the BCS Championship, and if they do I will throw up all over ESPN's bias agenda they've been pushing since Boise upset OU in the Fiesta Bowl.  If you want to win the big boy National Championship, you need to step up and play big boy football, nothing gets me more fired up than people talking about Kellen Moore for the Heisman and Boise for a National Championship.  If Kellen Moore wins the Heisman you'll have to look out for every quality high school player going to schools in the MAC, CUSA, MWC, WAC, and Sun Belt so they can put up video game like numbers in the first half, have some gatorade and chat with your other first team friends in the second half and get invited to New York to sit in front of the Heisman board at the end of the year.  Is that what College Football is headed to?  Sounds like I need to write another blog post!

OU and Boise could be in NOLA, but my money is on Wisconsin.  A great running game, clock management, solid physical defense, and now an NFL type QB, Wisconsin is the team to beat in the Big 10/12.  With Nebraska coming to Madison on Oct 1 and a tough road trip to Michigan State and to Ohio State at the end of the month, if the Badgers come out of this without a loss someone will be dealing with a very, very good football team in the BCS Championship.  Russell Wilson hasn't even had to show what he can do yet, Nick Toon is a legit playmaker in the red zone, and that huge, athletic offensive line and talented running back group make Wisconsin my favorite to win the Leaders division this year, but look out for a very capable Nebraska team that can lock up receivers and stuff the run.  Of all the good teams in College Football, none of them play old school hit 'em in the mouth spread offense (please see the sarcasm) like Nebraska, in Madison it's not enough, but the second time around is a different outcome and Nebraska and Wisconsin both have 1 loss.

Since Oregon's already suffered a loss at the hands of LSU and my complete lack in Stanford to put together an undefeated season and win the conference championship game, the BCS computers will be faced with a dillema.  There will be an undefeated Oklahoma and/or undefeated Wisconsin, if it's and then it's an all red and white BCS Championship and Wisconsin prevails.  I'm assuming it'll be or, so the computers have to pick, a one loss SEC Champion (LSU or Arkansas) or an undefeated Boise State.  Get ready for the Boise blitz from Herbstreit and ESPN this year, they'll be propping up the Broncos in the event ESPN has to sell interest in the National Championship game.  Let's be honest, I'll still watch it, but I won't like it.  Come on computers, make the right choice, choose SEC!