THE BATTLE OF THE HOTTEST HOT SEAT
This week Mark Richt will take his very warm seat into Oxford where Houston Nutt's seat would make the devil sweat. The difference in these two coaches is the caliber of young talent Mark Richt is putting on the field. Aaron Murray as a sophomore is really fun to watch and has moments where you're scratching your head thinking, "how does a defense ever get this kid off the field." Then Murray hands it off to a freshman named Isaiah Crowell and he goes for about 5.6 yds a carry and gives you the feeling he'll be disappointing defensive coordinators in the SEC for at least a few years. Then the play action comes, and Murray uses that athleticism to get outside the pocket and throws to another freshman, Malcolm Mitchell, yeah, he's leading the Dogs in catches and yards. Not far behind Mitchell is Michael Bennett the freshman tight end, he looks more like a receiver, but if we're grading on athleticism for a TE, I give him an A. The Bulldogs will be alright, don't give up on Richt just yet, if you fire him to get a big name guy like, well, Butch Davis, Jim Tressell, or a host of other coaches who have recently been released from employment for stretching the rules, you too might be skipping football after Thanksgiving for awhile. Richt is a great coach and Georgia will be alright, the schedule is tough this year, but the Bulldogs will be playing in a bowl game.
Houston Nutt's future is completely different, if Ole Miss had any sense at all they'd pony up that buyout money and send Houston Dale on his way. When Arkansas fell out of love with Nutt the media got onto to the Hogs for thinking they could do any better than the occasional Cotton Bowl. Turns out the media was wrong again, Petrino has the Hogs rolling, and Ole Miss should see this as an example why there's a better guy out there. As a big fan of SEC West football I know a few things to be true. #1 - Alabama is Alabama, is Alabama, is Alabama, they're good and even when they're bad, they're still good. #2 - Auburn's wins are directly related to how well Gus Malzahn's offense executes, and their losses are because Gene Chizik's defense can't stop anyone, it's like they're only playing with 8 defenders out there, EVERYONE is open. #3 - If Ole Miss allows Miss St to be the best team in Mississippi on a year in and year out basis, they're not as committed to football as they proclaim to be. Miss St is suppose to be the Vanderbilt of the West (minus the smart people), why are they good Ole Miss? Know your role and take care of your state and get a head football coach that believes that to be true.
Georgia 38 - Ole Miss 17
THE BATTLE FOR SCHOLASTIC DOMINANCE
Hahahaha!!! It doesn't matter who Vanderbilt plays in the SEC, they've already won that battle, but this year there may be some pretty intense battles on the field involving the Commodores.
Vandy looked pretty good last week, especially on Defense and they'll travel to South Carolina this weekend to test that D against a very capable Gamecock offense. The key man in Columbia is obviously Marcus Lattimore, who's on my short list for Heisman consideration, but the best player on the whole team might be Alshon Jeffery. I'd be shocked if Jeffery is not the first WR off the board in this years NFL draft, and don't think I've forgotten about Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State, I'd take Jeffery if I'm the GM. While Vandy's defense is much improved and plays with great discipline, South Carolina's offense is just too much this week.
South Carolina 34 - Vanderbilt 10, Marcus Lattimore goes for over 150, again.
IF ONLY THIS WERE PLAYED ON HARDWOOD
I want to send a sincere Thank You to the Kentucky Wildcats for bringing national recognition to the SEC's very poor basketball in the last several years. Also, I have the same sincere appreciation for Kentucky's football program, but for a completely different reason, they continue trying hard although they're absolutely outmatched in this league in all aspects of the sport. It's okay Wildcat fans, every basketball program in the country looks up to you in terms of wins, and each year Calipari gets to coach before they get him for recruiting infractions is another year that your lead in total wins increases. Know what you're good at, and it's not football this year. Florida on the other hand is very good this year and their defense looks similar to the unit that smothered Ohio State in the National Championship game just a few years ago.
Florida 38 - Kentucky 10
SPEED VERSUS SPEED/POWER
LSU is traveling to Morgantown this week, and Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineer offense looks like they can really score in bunches. Oh wait, that's right, LSU already played the best version of the spread in the country except their defense looked even faster than the Ducks. West Virginia will throw in some wrinkles, but LSU's defense is full of future NFL stars. Even though West Virginia likes to the use the spread and their athletic QB, Geno Smith, to throw the ball more than Oregon did, but throw it you may, succeed, probably not. LSU's Tyrann Mathieu is an elite corner/safety/linebacker/rover/I have no idea what position the mad hatter has him playing, elite athlete, and elite defender. LSU's defensive front is really tough and you don't recognize the names yet because they rotate several guys out there and each of them is as good as the other, and they're all real good. Look for the Mountaineers to speed up the tempo and try to keep the Tigers from rotating the defensive front. To counter, look for LSU's defenders to spend a lot of time on the ground "hurt" so they can make sure they're getting coached up between plays and able to rotate their stud athletes in and out of the game.
LSU 31 - West Virginia 20
THE BATTLE TO SEE WHO'S GOT LESS PERSONALITY, PETRINO OR SABAN
The old saying "offense wins games but defense wins championships" will be tested on Saturday. I had no idea which way to go, so I'll break it down and decide after some research. The Razorbacks travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend and you better believe both coaches have been talking about this one since spring practices. The Hogs got on the Tide early last year in Fayetteville and the lack of a running game gave Bama a chance to come back and get the W. Since then, Arkansas discovered a run game with Knile Davis, Alabama lost three games on there way to what we know was a disappointing season last year for Bama fans, Arkansas played in the Sugar Bowl, Alabama dismantled Michigan State in the Capital One bowl, Arkansas sent their rocket armed QB to the NFL, Alabama sent their Heisman winning RB to the NFL along with their best receiver and defender from last year, Arkansas replaced their two tackles and doesn't appear to be cohesive on the offensive line as of yet, Alabama's defense looks even nastier than last years, Arkansas lost Knile Davis and apparently their run game in the first live scrimmage of the year, Alabama has replaced their NFL stud RB with a guy that might even be better, Arkansas still doesn't have a corner that can cover my 16 year old brother one on one, Alabama's corners are fast and physical and play the ball extremely well in the air, Arkansas passing game has become abbreviated with Tyler Wilson and the vertical threats that opened up a lot of field are sidelined with injuries, Alabama looks more aggressive in the passing game and McCarron looks capable of making big plays with his arm.
After that you might think the Tide will have no problem handling the Hogs on Saturday, but when you break down the particulars I'm not so sure it'll be that easy.
Unit by Unit
Arkansas' Offensive Line vs Alabama's Defensive Front, big advantage Tide
The Hogs are more athletic up front than in years past, they're just really young and inexperienced. The holes have looked small and close fast for Wingo in the warm up games Arkansas has played so far, it'll be even tougher to find room against this Tide front seven. Upshaw and Hightower have been talking about how quickly they're going to embarrass the Hogs Freshman LT/weakside tackle (Petrino flips his O Line), Mitch Smothers, in his SEC debut. Upshaw and Hightower are elite LB's in the SEC, Smothers better bring his best stuff.
Arkansas' Receivers vs Alabama's Defensive Secondary, slight advantage to the Hogs
You might be shaking your head at this one, but let me explain. Yes, we know about how good Alabama's corners are playing the ball in the air and how hard the safeties hit. Problem is, Arkansas runs four Biletnikoff watchlist receivers onto the field. For those that don't see the point, it's not a matter of whether or not Bama's Dre Kirkpatrick or DeQuan Menzie can cover Arkansas' Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, or Greg Childs, it's a matter of which guy is covered by the least capable defender. It doesn't matter to Petrino or Tyler Wilson who he throws it to, he just wants to throw it. If you bring in more corners and try to play man, you might awaken the Hogs running game that has been in slumber the first three weeks of this season. If you line up with your base defense and think your safeties or linebackers can keep these receivers from making big plays, think differently. If you forget about Chris Gragg the TE or Ronnie Wingo the RB in the pass game, you'll get burned quickly. If Alabama can't get to Wilson and get him down early, he could settle in and find the weak link in the defense to break big plays.
Arkansas' Tyler Wilson vs Nick Saban's complex defensive blitz packages, advantage Saban
Tyler Wilson is very capable, but Saban has made a lot of QB's look silly by bringing pressure from places you never expect it. If the Hogs can't pick up the blitz early and effectively you'll see Wilson spending a lot of time on his back. That'll cause some early throws and potential mistakes from Wilson, and if he throws more than one pick in this game I give the Hogs less than 1% chance of winning.
Alabama's Offensive Line vs Arkansas' Defensive Front, very slight advantage Arkansas
Arkansas has shown flashes of competence on defense this year and the defensive front is without question the best unit of the defense, but I'm not sure it's enough to get pressure with just four. The Hogs still have LB Jerry Franklin, LB/S Jerico Nelson, and Newcomer LB Alonzo Highsmith which have done an excellent job this year stuffing the run and limiting big plays that start with short throws. Their ability to blitz from different places could confuse McCarron and force some ill advised throws into the hands of the Razorback secondary. Trent Richardson will be slowed but not stopped, so it's imperative that when he gets a small seam he takes it for a short gain. The Hogs will give up a big play or two, but they're a tough group to pickup yards on the ground against, so take it when you can get it. Alabama did find the run game late in last years game, but that was due to a lack of depth up front for the Hogs, Willy Robinson has 8 very capable defensive lineman this year and while they're not the LSU front 3, 4, or 5 whatever they go with, they should be able to at least stay fresh up front. Alabama's Offensive Line has not been moving people around like the Tide thought they would, and this is going to be without question the best defensive line the Tide have seen so far this year. Watch this battle when Alabama has the ball, I think this is the most important game within a game. If Arkansas can keep Alabama under 130 yds rushing as a team, and hurry McCarron into some poor throws watch Petrino and McGee get more conservative with the Hogs offense and if the run game isn't there they'll nickel and dime Alabama down the field with Joe Adams and Cobi Hamilton. If the Arkansas defensive front is winning this battle, look for a low scoring game, if Alabama is moving the ball on the ground and protecting McCarron, the points will start piling up, possibly for both teams as Petrino and McGee will be forced to try and outscore Bama.
Alabama receivers vs Arkansas' secondary, big advantage to Alabama
Don't get too excited, Bama's passing game is still elementary and while their receivers are highly rated recruits, I wouldn't rank the passing game in the top 5 of the SEC. The reason I'm taking Bama is the fact that the Hogs secondary is downright pitiful. They gave up big plays and consistent yardage to Troy, so I have little confidence there are many BCS conference team's receivers I wouldn't take against the Hogs awful secondary.
A.J. McCarron vs the Arkansas defensive scheme, slight edge to Arkansas and Willy Robinson.....IF
I've seen enough of Willy Robinson to know he has mastered one thing......his defense giving up yards to the opposition. The Hogs usually don't give up many points, but they will definitely give up some yards. The key to the Hogs defense is actually the Hogs offense. Watch for the Razorbacks early, if they jump out in front of Bama at the beginning of the game you might see Saban put more on the shoulders of A.J. McCarron to try and make big plays; if he can handle it or not I don't know. I do know Tramain Thomas has a nose for the ball and in big spots he seems to show up with a big play. If Arkansas jumps out to an early lead and McCarron has to put the ball in the air a bit more, you'll see the talented DE's Jake Bequette (Questionable for the game), Tank Wright, and Chris Smith of Arkansas able to pin their ears back and disrupt McCarron's timing. You'll probably see Robert Thomas and DD Jones spending some time in the Bama backfield causing havok, and Tramain Thomas will be the benefactor as the first time McCarron doesn't look him off or pump fake him out of the play, Thomas will be going the other direction with the football. If Arkansas can't jump out to an early lead, you might see Alabama and Trent Richardson go to work and wear down this Arkansas defense on the ground and give McCarron the play action throws to the TE and FB that Saban loves to use.
Arkansas Special Teams vs Alabama Special Teams, slight advantage Arkansas
Have you seen Joe Adams yet? And with Dennis Johnson back on kickoff return, the Hogs have all four facets of Special Teams with playmakers in each spot. The Hogs are in the top of the conference in punt returns, kickoff returns, kickoffs, and punting. Dylan Breeding the P and Zach Hocker the K are both very good and very consistent. So Arkansas is 1A, Bama and LSU are 1B and 1C, this is really a wash, but if Saban doesn't remind Mandell to punt it away from Joe Adams, the Hogs might put a quick 6 points on the board. It's like when Happy Gilmore realizes it's much easier to just hit a hole in one than to putt, Petrino will look at McGee the Offensive Coordinator and say, "that's so much easier than dealing with Bama's defense, let's just score on kick returns every time." Look for Mandell to punt away from the Hogs returners in this one, a lot of punts out of bounds, and improved field position for the Hogs.
Bobby Petrino versus Nick Saban, slight advantage Nick Saban
There's a small sample size, but Arkansas is 0-3 against Bama since Petrino became the head coach. While Alabama has always had NFL talent all over the field, with each year Arkansas is getting closer to that level. The Hogs aren't quite there yet, but I have a feeling if Petrino had Alabama caliber players he'd be raising big crystal trophies at the end of the year too.
Location, HUGE advantage Bama
Alabama is on my very short list of toughest places to play in the country, it doesn't help that the team your playing is among College Football's elite, but the crowd in Tuscaloosa loves their football. Alabama is especially good on defense at home and have only allowed 2 teams to score more than 20 in Tuscaloosa since Saban arrived. I don't know if the Hogs can score more than 20, but I bet Petrino and the defense hope they don't have to.
I like the way the Hogs will be playing in late October, but Wilson and the new Offensive Tackles need time to learn how to play in the SEC. If Alabama can get through Saturday and stay healthy, they're looking more and more like a team that can go undefeated, even with an extremely difficult schedule.
ALABAMA 27 - ARKANSAS 17
I've heard from someone, who's heard from someone, who's heard from an important Razorback player (meaning I don't know jack squat), that Arkansas has been preparing for Alabama since Spring practice. Everything they've done is in preperation for this game, they've only done things that would give them the best chance to win against Bama, they've been using the first three games as warm-up games and been resting their stars and faking injuries all to mess with Nick Saban. They've been increasing reps on the defensive line and abbreviating the playbook all for Bama. IF THIS IS TRUE!!!
ARKANSAS 24 - ALABAMA 23
ENJOY THE FOOTBALL!!!
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