Everyone knows the SEC is 5 for 5 in the last 5 National Championship games and the SEC owns 7 of the 13 total BCS Championships. Two, possibly 3, of those will be vacated due to compliance infractions on Miami and USC, Ohio State pending investigation. I still personally believe sCam Newton and Auburn will be vacating their NC, so we'll say, 4 of the last 4 were won by the SEC and 6 of 9 will actually be "recorded."
This year, there doesn't appear to be a dominate SEC team in the East or West, although the West looks like a much more competitive group. So, is this the year the SEC streak comes to an end? I think it's a strong possibility, given how evenly matched the top of the SEC West appears to be, but if a team from the West comes through that gauntlet with one loss, is that enough to get the bid to NOLA?
The four obvious candidates, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and South Carolina all have incredible strengths and glaring weaknesses. Alabama's elementary passing game will limit long scoring plays, but it's a lot harder to find weaknesses at Bama than the other three. Even when LSU gets Jordan Jefferson back, they've still got Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, their offense looks awful, I can't imagine what Kragthorpe is thinking right now about the recent QB recruiting at LSU. Yes, LSU can run the ball and no team in college football has athleticism like LSU does, not even Bama or Florida, but athleticism doesn't win games, points do. If LSU can convert a TD on special teams and defense in every game this year, they will have an excellent chance to run the table and win the National Championship, but can they beat a team that scores points early and forces them to throw the ball? You would think South Carolina with Garcia, Lattimore, Jeffery and a very athletic defense would have the fewest question marks, but Georgia, who couldn't move the ball against Boise, looked like the New England Patriots against that talented SC defense. If Garcia throws it to the right team, the rest of the pieces are in place for SC to have a special year. Marcus Lattimore is the best back in the country and it's getting harder and harder to argue after every performance. Right now Arkansas has the most questions, where's a run game, can Tyler Wilson get it done, will Greg Childs get back to the dominate Greg Childs of the last two seasons, can the defense get pressure on the QB, and
can the offensive line gel in time for the September 24th trip to Tuscaloosa. If you're a Hog fan you have to be nervous about finishing 4th or 5th in the West this year.
South Carolina by far has the easiest schedule of the four, but a nasty little road trip in the middle of the year could put the Gamecocks on the outside looking in. They do not play LSU or Alabama this year, but Oct 15th at Miss St, Oct 29th at Tenn, and Nov 5th at Arkansas will be a stretch like no other team outside the SEC will face all year, and they're not even playing the two best teams in the league. Miss St's offense is still difficult to watch and South Carolina, while they're not as deep as LSU, can run around and make plays on defense very similar to LSU, so I like the road trip to start off with a W. Tennessee is much improved on offense and Tyler Bray could be a very special player for the Vols, but I'm not sure Tennessee's defense could stop my intramural flag football team from scoring, so I'll say toss up, "the team with the most points will win the game" ~Lou Holtz. I'll get back to their trip to Fayetteville in a minute. They come home tired, possibly injured, probably with at least 1 loss and get Florida who will be much more comfortable with the new coaching staff. I think Florida prevails and South Carolina is in Atlanta for the SEC Championship with two losses.
Alabama just got done providing further proof that there is a fundamental difference in the kinds of athletes in the South versus the North. I'm not sure what it is, but Alabama was bigger, faster, stronger, quicker, and tougher than Penn State in all aspects of that game. The Tide get both Arkansas and LSU at home, don't have to play South Carolina, and so far look like the championship caliber team you expect from Saban, but I don't think it's that easy for Bama. The last thing you want if you're Bama is to play anyone in Bryant-Denny when the sun is still out. One of the most electric and exciting atmosphere's in the country just isn't the same during the day, maybe the fans haven't had enough time to "lube up" before the game. Whatever it is, they have to deal with it against Arkansas in two weeks. We'll know more about the Hogs after this week with Troy, but I have a feeling Petrino is playing his cards really close to the vest this year. He has one SEC West foe left to beat and Saban is that foe, and you better believe Petrino will have something special planned for Bama. I can't call this one, but right now I'm favoring Alabama, they just play the game so well and that swarming defense can really take a team out of it's rhythm. Last year was an emotional win for Bama and this year will be as well, look for another let down after beating Arkansas. What's the last place you want to go after a big win? The Swamp!!! A trip to Florida comes the next week with a brand new offense, brand new defense, speed, athleticism, depth (it's not like Urban Meyer stopped recruiting quality kids after two National Championships). Willy Muschamp gets his first big signature win by upsetting the #1 ranked Tide and brings everyone back into the picture. A fairly manageble schedule with Ole Miss on the road, Tenn at home, a bye week and then LSU comes to Tuscaloosa. Look for Saban's defense to overplay the run and allow Jordan Jefferson to have a big day throwing to the most underrated receiving core in College Football. LSU wins in Les Miles fashion, meaning, they probably should have lost. That gives Bama two losses and with South Carolina on the other side with two or three losses the SEC might be looking at the end of their streak.
No one in the country should get more respect than LSU for the way they schedule! It's like they're trying to lose a couple, but it's incredible for the fans and fans of college football in general. The probably LSU will run into this year is that some teams can actually score the ball. Look for LSU to drop one in October to Florida at home, Tenn on the road, or Auburn at home. I think Charlie Weiss will be able to turn Brantley into enough of a threat that with all that speed and talent around him he can put the ball in the end zone. We know what Tyler Bray can do at this point and I like him over the next couple of years to return that Tennessee program to the competition level they're use to. And never count out Gus Malzahn and what he's able to create with that Auburn spread attack, teams that can score and score early will put pressure on the QB's of LSU and even though all three of these games will be close, I think it's Auburn that comes into Death Valley and delivers the L to LSU. LSU does rally the troops and walks out of Tuscaloosa with a W, but Arkansas is coming in for their annual post Thanksgiving game on Nov 25th and I think it might be an SEC West deciding game.
Arkansas has two incredible difficult hurdles, to Tuscaloosa and to Baton Rouge, but the rest of the schedule sets up pretty nicely. The Hogs get Miss St, Auburn, and South Carolina at home, road games at Vanderbilt and Ole Miss should be manageable. Unfortunately for South Carolina, the Hogs love playing run defense and had no problems containing Lattimore last year in Columbia. Alshon Jeffery had a couple of catches, but Arkansas pulled away early and didn't take their foot off the gas. That confidence, along with the reemergence of Greg Childs and a running game in the latter weeks is why Arkansas gets it done against SC. If they stay healthy they'll have a very good shot at getting to Thanksgiving with just the loss to Bama on their resume. Can the Hogs win in Baton Rouge? The Arkansas v LSU game is always a treat for college football fans, overtimes, last second field goals, late scoring drives, a great defense verse a great offense, and most importantly, it's on the day after Thanksgiving. I can't make a prediction on the game just yet, my early lean is to Arkansas just because they can really score points with that sophisticated passing attack and future NFL receivers all over the field. I'm really excited about the Special Teams of Arkansas verse the Special Teams of LSU, but I give the edge to Arkansas this year. I can say with quite a bit of certainty that Arkansas' defense will outplay LSU's offense, I'd like more time to decide on Arkansas offense vs the LSU defense, but right now I'll say LSU wins that battle, (one name: Tyrann Mathieu, my favorite player to watch in sports right now), and you have to know Les Miles wins the intangibles category every game.
So, a one loss LSU or one loss Arkansas roll into Atlanta and take care of business against a South Carolina team that looked completely dissinterested in winning the SEC Championship last year. I wish I could say that one team rolls through the SEC and comes out without a loss, that way the SEC could go to NOLA and make it 6 in a row and maybe that will happen, I just don't see it this year.
The only way the SEC makes it back to the BCS Championship is by watching other top teams play their way out of a perfect season. We'll know a lot more about Florida State this weekend and their viability toward the National landscape, but there's just something about the way an older brother can always whip the younger brother and I anticipate Bob Stoops outright whipping Mark's very overrated defense. The Sooners defense introduces some new faces which will give up some plays early, but like Bob Stoops defenses always do, they'll grow up during the game. Oklahoma comes from behind and beats Florida State by a couple of scores on Saturday. That leaves Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, to knock off the Sooners and while I think Texas A&M is much improved, they're not enough improved to beat OU in what I think is the second toughest place to play in college football, Norman's Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium. OU will roll A&M in Norman, and before the A&M faithful get all antsy just remember 2002 when you beat Mr Stoops in College Station and the next year and very upset Sooner team beat the living maroon out of you in Norman 77-0. Franchione got mad because he felt Bobby was running the score up, I don't know Bob personally, but I was at the game and yes, he was just running the score up because he can. The Aggies got the best of the Sooners last year, but you shouldn't have pissed off Bobby the year before you try to make a National Championship run. Texas A&M will have a great season, I think Fuller is among the top 5 WR's in the country and with that long athletic frame he'll cause some problems for the weaker defenses (OU not included) of the Big 12/10. A&M finishes second in the conference behind Oklahoma, and if no one is able to knock off the Sooners I think it'll be good enough to get them into the Fiesta Bowl. The biggest game for OU is the last game for OU, Bedlam. If this isn't the year Gundy gets his first W over Oklahoma, then OU will run the table as the #1 team and be watching the conference championship games closely to see who will be waiting when they get there.
Boise State has a much more difficult schedule than in years past, but that's like saying Obama is a good President because he got the unemployment rate down from 9.2% to 8.8%, it's still a terrible unemployment rate and Boise still has a laughable path to an undefeated season. They do have Nevada, Air Force, and TCU which are all still warm up games for mid level teams in the BCS conferences. Not to mention, all their "big" games are in Boise. I heard Herbstreit the other day say, "I've got Oct 8th circled, that's when Boise goes to Fresno State." Sometimes I want to slap Herbstreit and Mark May mid sentence and be like, "really, really, that's what you have circled!!!" Fresno State went to Nebraska, you didn't have that one circled, they're playing Ole Miss at home, I didn't hear you circled that one, why is that? Oh, because Nebraska ROLLED Fresno State by two touchdowns as did California, that JUGGERNAUT of college football in Berkley!!! Give me a break Herbstreit, if Boise's biggest win is Fresno State and Georgia (which it will be), you'll have to take into account that half the SEC beat Georgia, so it's not like that earns you the right to play for a National Championship. Boise will finish the year undefeated and they may get the opportunity to play in the BCS Championship, and if they do I will throw up all over ESPN's bias agenda they've been pushing since Boise upset OU in the Fiesta Bowl. If you want to win the big boy National Championship, you need to step up and play big boy football, nothing gets me more fired up than people talking about Kellen Moore for the Heisman and Boise for a National Championship. If Kellen Moore wins the Heisman you'll have to look out for every quality high school player going to schools in the MAC, CUSA, MWC, WAC, and Sun Belt so they can put up video game like numbers in the first half, have some gatorade and chat with your other first team friends in the second half and get invited to New York to sit in front of the Heisman board at the end of the year. Is that what College Football is headed to? Sounds like I need to write another blog post!
OU and Boise could be in NOLA, but my money is on Wisconsin. A great running game, clock management, solid physical defense, and now an NFL type QB, Wisconsin is the team to beat in the Big 10/12. With Nebraska coming to Madison on Oct 1 and a tough road trip to Michigan State and to Ohio State at the end of the month, if the Badgers come out of this without a loss someone will be dealing with a very, very good football team in the BCS Championship. Russell Wilson hasn't even had to show what he can do yet, Nick Toon is a legit playmaker in the red zone, and that huge, athletic offensive line and talented running back group make Wisconsin my favorite to win the Leaders division this year, but look out for a very capable Nebraska team that can lock up receivers and stuff the run. Of all the good teams in College Football, none of them play old school hit 'em in the mouth spread offense (please see the sarcasm) like Nebraska, in Madison it's not enough, but the second time around is a different outcome and Nebraska and Wisconsin both have 1 loss.
Since Oregon's already suffered a loss at the hands of LSU and my complete lack in Stanford to put together an undefeated season and win the conference championship game, the BCS computers will be faced with a dillema. There will be an undefeated Oklahoma and/or undefeated Wisconsin, if it's and then it's an all red and white BCS Championship and Wisconsin prevails. I'm assuming it'll be or, so the computers have to pick, a one loss SEC Champion (LSU or Arkansas) or an undefeated Boise State. Get ready for the Boise blitz from Herbstreit and ESPN this year, they'll be propping up the Broncos in the event ESPN has to sell interest in the National Championship game. Let's be honest, I'll still watch it, but I won't like it. Come on computers, make the right choice, choose SEC!
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